In the Democratic primary, the biggest challenge to President Joe Biden was not a single person. It was a movement.
In early 2024, the death toll in Gaza was ticking towards 30,000. Americans watched their newsfeeds fill with videos of Palestinians, often children, suffering in the aftermath of bombings; they saw families begging for help; and they heard the president of the United States say his support for Israel would not waver.
As Biden refused even to utter the word “ceasefire,” voters across the country selected “uncommitted” or “no preference” on their Democratic primary ballots. The movement’s impact was notable, especially in swing states: 13 percent of voters in Michigan, just under 19 percent in Minnesota, and just below 15 percent in North Carolina voted “uncommitted.” In Illinois, a state without an “uncommitted” option on the ballot, voters wrote in “Gaza.”
Before Biden’s disastrous debate performance, the president’s policies on Israel seemed the greatest challenge to his campaign from within the Democratic party. Now, his age might be the thing that ends his candidacy. Per a June 17th Associated Press poll, nearly two-thirds of Democrats want Biden to withdraw.
If Biden were to drop out, it would allow the Democratic party to potentially win back “uncommitted” voters by resetting their policies on Gaza.
“I will say it’s not gone unnoticed that [Vice President] Kamala [Harris] has been more empathetic towards Palestinians than Biden,” Natalia Latif, a spokesperson for the Uncommitted movement, told me. In early March, Harris made a speech calling for a six-week “temporary ceasefire,” long before Biden even publicly made that much of a concession on the war. Harris has also expressed sympathy for pro-Palestine student protesters, saying that they are “showing exactly what the human emotion should be, as a response to Gaza,” though she was quick to note she does not “wholesale endorse their points.”
Still, Latif and the Uncommitted movement—a nationwide protest-voter bloc spurred into being by Arab-American voters during the Michigan primary cycle who pledged to vote “uncommitted” in order to push the Democratic establishment left on Gaza—have been clear they would not just accept anyone who isn’t Biden. To win back their votes, a candidate would need to call for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and a cessation of arms shipments to Israel. Advocate for that, Latif said, and “we will mobilize our voters for Biden, or for any potential new nominee.”
“Who is willing to stop funding the mass killing of civilians using our tax dollars? That’s the candidate I want.”
None of the candidates whose names have been floated as potential Biden replacements have called for a permanent ceasefire yet, even as the death toll in Gaza rises. It has now surpassed 38,000.
The historical median protest vote in a Democratic base hovers around 7 percent. The Uncommitted movement, which initially hoped to attract only 10,000 Michigan Democratic voters, says they represent over 700,000 voters nationwide. They are also sending 30 delegates to the Democratic National Convention. Compared to Biden’s 3,896 delegates that’s small potatoes, but it could be a key block if Biden drops out and the convention becomes more complex.
“This is the first time in the history of this country that there will be a delegation at the DNC specifically to uplift Palestinian human rights,” Latif said.
Abbas Alawieh was a Detroit-area organizer for Listen to Michigan, the smaller state-level effort to vote against Biden in the primary because of his policies on Israel that “took on a life of its own” and went national. Now, Alawieh is continuing to organize for the Uncommitted Movement—and he has been appointed one of two uncommitted DNC delegates for Michigan. He, too, is keeping an eye on Harris.
“I am very curious to hear how Vice President Harris would differentiate her own Gaza policy from President Biden,” Alawieh said. “[I] hope that she differentiates her policy quickly and articulates a more humane approach that allows for us to, hopefully, save lives, and re-engage voters who feel deeply betrayed.”
June Rose, an uncommitted delegate for Rhode Island, says that while none of the candidates currently being floated have a real “history of speaking up for the Palestinian people,” they’re willing to support any candidate who promises to do so.
“I don’t really care what their history is—I care about what they’re going to do. If Vice President Harris were to come forward and say, as President, I would stop arming Israel, then that would gain my support.”
On July 17th, it was reported that the DNC plans to use a virtual roll call process to formally nominate President Biden for re-election in early August, which could short-circuit efforts to replace him. Latif called this move “a tactic to try and out-maneuver protests.”
Rose questioned how the Democratic party can position itself as opposed to fascism while cramming through a nominee that two-thirds of its own base does not support. “Whether your problem with Joe Biden is his atrocious policies with regards to the war in Gaza, or whether your problem with Joe Biden is that he’s clearly both incapable of defeating Donald Trump and of serving as president, you should be loud in your objections to the DNC putting it to bed behind closed doors on Zoom,” they said.
The convention might also go the opposite direction: rumors are swirling that Biden may withdraw from the race as soon as this weekend. That might mean an open convention, in which would-be nominees would have to seek support from individual delegates rather than having a guaranteed voting bloc.
In that case, Alawieh’s ready to be convinced.
“I, as a delegate, will be all ears. Who is willing to stop funding the mass killing of civilians using our tax dollars? That’s the candidate I want.”